ZIMBABWE’s tobacco auction prices have rebounded nearly 59% to US$2,54/kg by last Tuesday, signalling improving market conditions after a weak start, although prices still remain below last season’s levels.
The recovery points to a season of stark contradictions: record-breaking volumes that may still yield less foreign currency than the prior year, as lower average prices offset the gains from bumper output — raising questions about the crop’s earnings power even as Zimbabwe cements its status as a major tobacco producer.
Tobacco sales have reached 330,6 million kilogrammes, though the season’s average price remains 25% below last year’s level at US$2,50/kg.
In the previous season, a total of 355 million kilogrammes of the golden leaf were sold, generating US$1,2 billion in revenue.
The 2026 marketing season opened on March 4.
If the current average selling price holds and the country achieves the projected record-breaking tobacco volumes of 400 million kilogrammes this season, Zimbabwe could set a new production record for the crop but earn only about US$1,02 billion.
“Pertaining to tobacco, a total of 330,6 million kilogrammes of tobacco has been sold at an average price of US$2,50/kg. This is an 11% increase in volume and 25% decrease in average price compared to the previous season, where 299,2 million kilogrammes were sold at an average price of US$3,36/kg,” a post-Cabinet brief for Tuesday read.
“Auction tobacco prices in 2026 have shown gradual recovery despite periods of mid-season volatility. Average auction prices increased from around US$1,60/kg at the start of the season to approximately US$2,54/kg by selling day 71, reflecting improved market performance in recent weeks.”
Tobacco remains the country’s largest commercial crop and main foreign currency driver.
“Average tobacco prices softened during the period, with contract prices declining by 24% and auction prices decreasing by approximately 42% compared to the prior year. While lower average selling prices partially offset revenue growth, the significant increase in volumes handled resulted in revenue growth,” TSL Limited said in its half-year report ended April 30, 2026.
“Despite the softer pricing environment, the total volume for the 2025/2026 tobacco marketing season is expected to surpass the 355 million kilogrammes achieved in the previous year.”
TSL said early weather forecasts indicate the possibility of an El Niño-induced drought during the 2026/2027 season.
“Combined with lower tobacco prices recorded during the 2025/2026 marketing season, these factors may moderate farmer spending and agricultural activity in the forthcoming season,” TSL said.-newsday
