Zimbabwe’s exports posted a 63 percent jump in the first quarter of 2026, driven by surging gold and tobacco shipments, while elevated imports continued to reflect the economy’s heavy dependence on fuel and industrial inputs.
Trade data for January to March 2026, released by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat), showed that export earnings from major products rose sharply as global commodity prices remained firm and production volumes improved across the key mining and agriculture sectors.
While export growth is critical for driving industrialisation and job creation, sustained inflows have assumed another strategically important role: anchoring the stability of Zimbabwe’s new domestic currency, the ZiG.
The strong performance follows a record-breaking 2025, when Zimbabwe generated more than US$16 billion in foreign currency receipts — the highest since independence and nearly triple the US$5,5 billion recorded in 2017 before the advent of the Second Republic.
The leading export, semi-manufactured gold, generated more than US$1.38 billion during the first three months of 2026, up from the US$755 million recorded during the same period last year.
The growth in bullion sales highlights the growing contribution of the sector to Zimbabwe’s foreign currency earnings.
Gold alone accounted for almost half of the country’s major export earnings during the quarter, underlining the strategic importance of the mining sector in supporting external trade.
Tobacco exports also strengthened significantly. Tobacco (partly or wholly stemmed/stripped) earned over US$510 million between January and March this year, compared to roughly US$291 million in the same period in 2025.
This strong performance followed improved volumes from previous seasons, firmer international demand, and continued growth in contract farming arrangements.
Nickel mattes, which include platinum group metals, remained another vital export line, generating more than US$276 million during the review period, compared to US$224 million last year. Other notable exports included ferro-chromium, coke and semi-coke of coal, nickel ores and concentrates, industrial diamonds, and chromium ores.
This robust performance resulted in an improved trade balance. Zimbabwe’s trade deficit narrowed to approximately US$122.6 million, down from the US$485.6 million recorded in the first quarter of 2025. For the month of March 2026 specifically, the deficit was US$142.8 million against US$209.7 million in March 2025. Although imports remained high due to demand for fuel and industrial inputs, stronger export receipts helped reduce pressure on the country’s external trade position.
Economist Ms Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi said the figures demonstrate that Zimbabwe is beginning to benefit from renewed momentum in commodity exports.
“The strong export growth during the first quarter is encouraging because it shows improved capacity utilisation in mining and agriculture,” she said.
“Gold continues to anchor foreign currency generation, while tobacco is recovering strongly after favourable seasonal conditions and improved funding models.”
Ms Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi noted that this performance could help stabilise the exchange rate and strengthen liquidity if export receipts are retained within the formal economy. However, she cautioned that diversification remains critical.
“The economy still relies heavily on a few primary commodities. Long-term sustainability will depend on beneficiation, industrialisation, and moving up the value chain,” she added.
On the import side, fuel products continued to dominate the bill. Mineral fuels and oils accounted for the largest share of imports during the quarter, with expenditure exceeding US$567 million, up from US$467 million in the first quarter of 2025.
Kerosene, including jet fuel, remained the single largest imported fuel product, costing more than US$335 million. Motor spirit (including aviation fuel) also recorded a notable increase, rising to nearly US$149 million from US$117 million in the comparable period last year.
The increase in fuel imports reflects growing economic activity and higher transport demand, but also a persistent reliance on imported petroleum.
Zimbabwe also continued to import large quantities of cereals, though spending on maize declined. The value of cereal imports was slightly above US$203 million during the quarter, down from US$265 million in 2025.
Maize imports specifically fell by more than 35 percent to around US$128 million, suggesting improved local grain availability following better agricultural output and increased support for farmers.
Imports of inorganic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers and industrial raw materials remained significant, highlighting a continued dependence on imported manufacturing and mining inputs.
Industrialist Dr Nxaba Ndiweni said the figures reflect both opportunities and structural weaknesses.
“The growth in exports is positive . . . However, the structure of imports shows that Zimbabwe still imports too many finished or semi-finished products that could potentially be produced locally,” he said.
Dr Ndiweni argued that stronger industrial policy implementation is needed to reduce dependency and encourage beneficiation.
“Exporting raw or semi-processed minerals limits the full economic benefit that the country can derive from its resources,” he said, adding that rising fuel imports also expose the economy to external shocks and global price volatility.
Analysts suggest that Zimbabwe’s economic performance for the remainder of 2026 will remain closely tied to commodity markets and agricultural recovery. While continued strength in gold exports is expected to support inflows, concerns remain over global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions that could shift trade dynamics.
-herald
