ZIMBABWE has made notable progress in diversifying its export base over the past 14 years, while the manufacturing sector is showing encouraging signs of growth and resilience.
This reflects increasing momentum in the country’s industrialisation, value addition and beneficiation drive.
According to the African Development Bank (AfDB) Africa Industrialisation Index 2025: titled Policy and
Investment Implications — Accelerating Africa’s Industrial Transformation, Zimbabwe recorded measurable improvements in expanding the range of products contributing to exports between 2010 and 2024.
AfDB contends that this signals a gradual transformation of the country’s export structure despite lingering structural constraints.
Export diversification is widely regarded as a critical pillar for sustainable economic growth as it reduces dependence on a narrow range of commodities, strengthens foreign currency generation and improves resilience against global market shocks.
A diversified export basket also enables countries to create more jobs across multiple sectors of the economy, stimulate innovation and increase industrial productivity.
Economies that export a broader range of manufactured and processed goods are generally better positioned to withstand commodity price fluctuations and external economic shocks, while also improving balance of payments stability.
Industrialists have been saying export diversification is particularly important for developing economies seeking long-term industrial transformation because it promotes value addition, expands market opportunities and enhances competitiveness in regional and international trade.
Increased diversification also helps countries move up global value chains by transitioning from raw material exports to higher-value industrial and manufactured products.
The AfDB Export Diversification Index shows Zimbabwe improving from around 0.87 in 2010 to approximately 0.79 in 2024, showing positive strides towards broadening industrial output and export participation.
The report also points to significant gains in the manufacturing sector, whose contribution to Gross Domestic Product rose from 9,2 percent in 2010 to 15,5 percent in 2024.
Manufacturing value added per capita surged nearly fivefold from US$83 to US$399,60 over the same period, while the sector recorded a strong average annual growth rate of 13,6 percent, ranking among the strongest performers in Southern Africa.
The positive trajectory comes as the Government intensifies efforts to promote beneficiation and local value addition in line with the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS-2), Vision 2030 and broader industrial transformation policies aimed at increasing exports of processed and manufactured goods rather than raw materials.
The gains reflect growing investments in agro-processing, tobacco value addition, pharmaceuticals, lithium processing and mining-related manufacturing activities, sectors viewed as critical in repositioning Zimbabwe into a competitive industrial economy. While the country remains heavily reliant on mineral exports, particularly basic metals, economists say ongoing policy reforms and industrialisation strategies are laying a solid foundation for the emergence of more diversified export streams and higher-value manufacturing.
Economist Mr Isaac Nekati told Zimpapers Business Hub that export diversification remains critical for long-term macroeconomic stability and sustainable economic growth.
“A diversified export basket strengthens economic resilience and improves the country’s ability to withstand external shocks associated with fluctuations in commodity prices,” he said.
He noted that the improving export diversification trend reflects growing industrial activity and increased participation in regional and continental markets under frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The AfDB report noted that the structure of manufactured exports in Southern Africa still reflects a strong pattern of primary or mono-sectoral specialisation, which constrains productive diversification across the region.
“Resource-rich economies are overwhelmingly dominated by basic metals, notably Zimbabwe (92.2 percent), Zambia (85.7 percent), Mozambique (65.8 percent), and South Africa (52.2 percent),” reads part of the report.
However, analysts say Zimbabwe’s strong base in basic metals presents an opportunity to accelerate downstream beneficiation and industrial upgrading.
Mr Nekati said Zimbabwe’s manufactured export sector, while currently concentrated in basic metals at 92,2 percent of total manufacturing exports, presents a strategic platform for industrial expansion.
“The country’s export diversification index of 0.873, higher than South Africa’s 0.555 and Mauritius’s 0.674, reflects an opportunity to deliberately expand into adjacent high-value sectors while leveraging existing strengths,” he said.
“Encouragingly, even marginal shares in other sectors point to untapped capacity, for instance, food and beverages at 1.4 percent, chemicals at 0.3 percent, machinery and appliances at 0.3 percent and textiles and apparel at 0.4 percent point to opportunities available.”
“Basic metals are our anchor, not our ceiling. We can simultaneously deepen beneficiation in metals while scaling up agro-processing and light manufacturing. Regional integration makes this entirely achievable,” said Mr Nekati.
He added that with deliberate public-private sector coordination, access to trade finance and quality certification support for small-to-medium enterprises, the country could transform its export profile from single-sector reliance to resilient and diversified industrial leadership in Southern Africa.
The report notes that some regional economies exhibit stronger specialisation in labour-intensive light manufacturing industries.
“Lesotho and Madagascar are notable examples, with a strong predominance of textiles and apparel (73.8 percent and 35.5 percent, respectively).
“Mauritius presents a more diversified export structure, combining textiles (28.9 percent), food and beverages (30.8 percent), and chemicals (12.5 percent), reflecting a relatively mature manufacturing base.
“The export diversification index reinforces this picture: South Africa (0.555) is the most diversified economy, while countries such as Botswana, Angola, and Zimbabwe show very high levels of specialisation (>0.85),” reads the report.
The AfDB report noted, however, that challenges remain in achieving a fully diversified export structure.
According to the report, 92,2 percent of Zimbabwe’s manufactured exports remain concentrated in basic metals, representing one of the highest concentrations in Southern Africa.
Despite these challenges, economist Ms Alice Chikonzi said Zimbabwe’s progress between 2010 and 2024 provides a strong platform for future industrial expansion and export growth.
“Continued reforms, infrastructure rehabilitation, improved electricity supply, affordable financing and enhanced logistics systems will be critical in accelerating diversification and improving competitiveness,” she said. “When reading the AfDB report, one gets a sense that countries that successfully diversify exports generally achieve stronger economic growth, improved employment creation and greater resilience against global economic disruptions.
“Therefore, Zimbabwe’s ongoing industrialisation drive and increasing focus on value addition position the country favourably to unlock new export opportunities and strengthen its role in regional and international trade.”
In the foreword to the report, AfDB Industrial and Trade Development Department director Mr Ousmane Fall and Statistics Department director Mr Babatunde Samson Omotosho said industrialisation remains central to Africa’s long-term economic transformation agenda.
“For African economies, industrialisation remains the most effective pathway to achieving structural transformation, creating quality jobs, driving prosperity and building more resilient and diversified economies,” they said.
“However, in a rapidly evolving global context, advancing industrialisation requires an approach that is grounded in evidence, driven by investment, and anchored in strong institutions.
“Against this backdrop, this African Industrialisation Index 2025 report is a critical tool: it tracks African economies’ industrialisation trajectories and informs the strategic policymaking and priority interventions needed to drive inclusive and sustainable industrial development across Africa.”-herald
