THE Meteorological Services Department has cautioned against assuming that every El Niño phenomenon triggers severe drought in Zimbabwe, urging farmers not to be discouraged from planting. Speaking during the Agriculture Climate Resilience 2026 Conference hosted by Zimpapers yesterday, MSD meteorologist Ms Tapiwa Masawi said climate patterns manifest differently across seasons and regions, noting that global El Niño warnings should not necessarily trigger widespread panic.
Ahead of the upcoming season, weather experts have warned of a potential El Niño-induced drought— with some upgrading the forecast to a “super El Niño”— prompting key agricultural and climate stakeholders to gather at a multi-stakeholder conference organised by Zimpapers on mitigating its impact.
Agriculture is the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy (10,8 percent of GDP) and millions of rural households rely heavily on rain-fed farming, hence the intense focus on the projected phenomenon and the need for interventions to limit its negative impact on the country.
Ms Masawi noted historical rainfall patterns show that even strong El Niño events do not always result in poor rainfall in Zimbabwe, referencing the 1997/98 season — which, despite predictions of a strong drought, delivered manageable rainfall in some parts of the country.
The department’s historical analysis of past climate cycles — including the strong El Niño events of 1991/92, 2015/16 and 2023/24, as well as the moderate 2018/19 season — reveals that global intensity markers do not determine local rainfall outcomes uniformly.
Highlighting the 1997/98 season as a prime example, Ms Masawi noted that despite being classified as a very strong El Niño event, the country still recorded fair rainfall.
“So we are generally saying that if it’s a strong El Niño season, it doesn’t mean that it will be dry,” she said, adding that a strong global drought does not guarantee widespread drought on the ground.
Ms Masawi explained that El Niño was a macro-level global atmospheric phenomenon with variable local outcomes. Some weather drivers can significantly modify global forecasts. In particular, tropical cyclones can funnel vast moisture corridors into the interior, effectively counteracting El Niño’s suppressing influence and bringing good rainfall even during anticipated dry cycles.
Rather than withholding agricultural activities, producers are encouraged to consult local extension officers and agronomists to adopt tailored climate-smart strategies for the upcoming season.
Reinforcing the call, Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development agrometeorologist Dr Hillary Mugiyo warned against fearmongering and passive waiting, cautioning against declaring a “pre-emptive” farming shutdown.
“If we don’t plant, if we don’t prepare, we lose the livelihoods of people and lives of people,” Dr Mugiyo warned.
Addressing historical anxieties around extreme weather, Dr Mugiyo stressed that national preparedness and strategic water storage have fundamentally changed the country’s vulnerability compared to past crisis years.
“We are not going to have the scenario of 1992 because we have planned accordingly,” he reassured delegates, noting that national dams are currently sitting at roughly 83 percent capacity, providing a critical buffer for production. “We are now living in a data-driven environment . . . We need to monitor the weather and advise farmers so that they don’t lose out.”
Producers are encouraged to consult local extension officers and agronomists to adopt tailored climate-smart strategies, including matching seed variety maturity lengths to localised forecasts.
The conference, held under the theme “From Climate Forecast to Farm Action: Building a Resilient, Productive and Food-Secure Zimbabwe,” was convened ahead of the anticipated El Niño season as part of the Zimpapers Interactive Dialogues — a platform hosted by the media group to engage key stakeholders on national development and economic resilience issues.
During the meeting, delegates reached a consensus that the seasonal outlook is not entirely gloomy, noting that several mitigation strategies are available to cushion farmers against potential drought.
Key measures highlighted include leveraging localised indigenous knowledge systems for early weather indication, ensuring responsible data dissemination to guide farming decisions and promoting the adoption of alternative, drought-tolerant crops.
Experts also emphasised the importance of planting crop varieties carefully matched to specific agro-ecological zones to minimise the risk of crop failure.
The MSD seasonal outlook for October to December indicates that rainfall is likely to remain below normal across the country, although conditions are expected to vary by month and region.
October and November are forecast to be predominantly dry, with only limited northern areas likely to experience normal-to-below-normal rainfall. The outlook indicates a slight improvement in rainfall prospects in December, particularly in Beitbridge, Matabeleland South, western Masvingo and southern parts of the Midlands, where normal-to-above-normal rainfall is expected.
However, western and southern areas could experience normal-to-below-normal rainfall, while much of the north and east is expected to remain drier than normal.
The dry conditions are projected to persist from January to March 2027, with the southern and western parts of the country expected to receive normal-to-below-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall.
Reduced rainfall could also limit the replenishment of dams and rivers, increasing pressure on irrigation water supplies, while livestock farmers may face shortages of pasture and drinking water.
To safeguard national production, Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development Permanent Secretary, Professor Obert Jiri, said the Government has since established a six-pillar strategy aimed at cushioning the country against potential dry conditions and ensuring national food security.
Under the plan, he said the Government is prioritising the expansion of the Strategic Grain Reserve — building up physical grain stocks from large-scale national silos down to household-level granaries to cushion vulnerable communities.
This is being paired with the aggressive scaling up of climate-smart agriculture, particularly the Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation farming model, alongside the distribution of drought-tolerant crops strictly matched to specific agro-ecological zones.
To support implementation on the ground, the framework establishes an integrated agricultural financing architecture aimed at channelling credit, input subsidies, and capital towards climate-proof farming and irrigation infrastructure.
Parallel efforts are directed at protecting the national herd through a dedicated livestock mitigation plan, which focuses on feed production, establishing localised fodder banks, managing communal water points, and advising early destocking in high-risk zones.
The Government has structured targeted grain import mechanisms to proactively bridge potential supply deficits should local production drop.
This is anchored by enhanced early-warning systems and capacity-building programmes, ensuring that real-time climate data and agrometeorological advice reach farmers timeously to guide land preparation and planting decisions.-herald
