The World Economic Forum, an international non-governmental organisation that convenes leaders to discuss global challenges and shape world agendas through public-private cooperation, has identified geoeconomic confrontation as the primary threat facing the world in 2026.
The primary actors in current geoeconomic confrontations are major powers, including the United States and China, along with other significant players like the European Union, India and the Gulf states.
Geoeconomic confrontation involves using economic tools as “weaponry” to secure an advantage or impose costs
The WEF 21st Annual Global Risks Report paints a sombre picture of a global landscape defined by “turbulent” expectations and shifting power dynamics.
The Global Risks Report is the World Economic Forum’s flagship publication on global risks.
It leverages insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey, which draws on the views of over 1 300 global leaders and experts from academia, business, government, international organisations and civil society, as well as the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Global Future Councils Network and the Forum’s C-suite communities.
The report identifies and analyses the most pressing risks across immediate, short- and long-term horizons, aiming to equip leaders with foresight to address emerging challenges and foster collective action to build a more resilient future.
Half of the surveyed experts predict a “stormy” world over the next two years, a 14 percent increase from the previous year.
Looking 10 years ahead, 57 percent of leaders expect a turbulent global environment, while only 1 percent anticipate a sense of calm.
Approximately 68 percent of respondents believe the next decade will be characterised by a “multipolar or fragmented” world order.
Geoeconomic confrontation has surged eight spots to become the number one risk for the next two years.
State-based armed conflict is the second-highest risk for 2026, though it is expected to drop to 5th place by 2028.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” said Borge Brende, president and chief executive of World Economic Forum.
“Our annual meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them.”
Concerns regarding economic downturns and inflation have both risen eight positions, signalling a new phase of market instability.
Misinformation and disinformation rank as the second-most severe risk over the next two years.
While Artificial Intelligence (AI) risks currently rank 30th, they are projected to skyrocket to 5th place in the 10-year outlook due to concerns over labour markets and security.
Societal polarisation and inequality continue to be seen as “interconnected” risks that fuel broader instability and hinder social mobility.
Environmental risks, such as extreme weather and biodiversity loss, actually dropped in the rankings for the two-year outlook as leaders focus on immediate economic and geopolitical crises.
Despite the short-term dip, environmental issues remain the most severe risks over the 10-year horizon, with extreme weather occupying the top spot.
“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks —from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt — and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” said Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director.
“The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”-herald
