FOSSIL fuels, machinery and mechanical appliances dominated Zimbabwe’s imports in 2025, but the untold economic story behind the inbound shipments points to a deeper structural shift.
While fuel imports moderated, rising machinery purchases underpinned production and growth in gold and lithium exports, strengthening Zimbabwe’s trade balance and easing inflationary pressures.
The changing composition of imports highlights a transition from consumption-driven demand to investment-led international trade dynamics for the country.
Mineral fuels remain Zimbabwe’s largest import category, with the annual import bill reaching US$2,4 billion in 2024 and declining to US$2,2 billion in 2025, an estimated 10 percent fall year-on-year.
Fuel imports peaked between July and September, driven by increased transportation services, agricultural logistics and power generation needs.
January and February had the lowest imports, reflecting subdued economic activity and reliance on stock drawdowns early in the year.
Economist Mr Takudzwa Maradze said the slowdown in fuel imports played a critical role in stabilising domestic prices.
Monthly inflation averaged 0,4 percent between February and December, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, while the annual rate plunged from about 96 percent to 15 percent by year-end.
“Fuel is a major inflation transmitter. The reduction in fuel import values in 2025 directly contributed to lower transport costs and reduced pass-through effects across the economy,” Mr Muradze said.
He added that the growing adoption of solar energy, coal-based power generation and ethanol blending helped contain fuel demand despite expanding economic activity.
In contrast, machinery and mechanical appliance imports expanded strongly, rising from an estimated US$1,5 billion in 2024 to about US$1,9 billion in 2025, an increase of roughly 30 percent.
The imports were concentrated in the second half of the year, with the October to December period recording the highest shipments, reflecting growth in project execution cycles in mining, energy and construction.
March and April were consistently the weakest months, as procurement and financing pipelines were still forming.
Economist Tinevimbo Shava said the surge in machinery imports marked a decisive shift.
“This is a productive import cycle. Equipment for mining, power and processing facilities feeds directly into export growth and long-term foreign currency generation,” he said.
The impact of capital imports became most visible in the gold sector. Gold export earnings rose sharply in 2025, supported by improved global prices, plant capacity, better recovery rates and expanded small-scale mining operations.
International gold prices climbed from an average of about US$1 950 per ounce in 2024 to above US$2 300 per ounce in 2025, representing a price increase of approximately 18 percent. Combined with higher volumes, Zimbabwe’s gold export earnings increased by an estimated 25 percent year on year.
“Without sustained investment in processing plants, milling equipment and power infrastructure, Zimbabwe would not have been able to take full advantage of favourable gold prices,” Mr Maradze said.
Gold remained Zimbabwe’s largest export, providing critical support to foreign currency reserves, fiscal revenue inflows and exchange rate stability, given Zimbabwe’s gold and forex reserves backed ZiG.
Exports of the yellow metal rose from US$2,25 billion in 2024 to US$4,48 billion in 2025, making up about 47 percent of total exports and 43 percent of mineral exports. Production increased from 36 tonnes in 2024 to 47 tonnes in 2025, a gain of roughly 31 percent.
Lithium exports also strengthened in 2025, closely linked to machinery imports tied to processing and beneficiation facilities. While global lithium prices remained volatile, average prices improved modestly from depressed 2024 levels, with increases of around 10-12 percent in parts of 2025.
Export earnings from lithium grew by an estimated 20 percent, driven more by higher output and improved processing quality than by price gains alone.
This, Mr Shava said, highlighted the importance of capital imports.
“Lithium is a volume and processing story. Machinery imports enable beneficiation, which raises export values even when prices are not booming.”
Although fuel still weighs heavily on the import bill, the combined effect of lower fuel imports and higher export earnings from gold and lithium improved the trade balance in qualitative terms.
The country recorded a major improvement in its external trade position in 2025, with the trade deficit narrowing sharply to US$404 million, down from a widened US$1,79 billion deficit in 2024, representing a 77,5 percent improvement.
Rather than importing consumer goods, Zimbabwe increasingly imported productive capital, which drove the strong export performance.
“A trade balance driven by machinery imports and mineral exports is far healthier than one driven by fuel and finished goods,” Mr Shava said. “It supports sustainability rather than short-term consumption.”
Looking ahead, economists expect fuel imports to remain elevated but contained, while machinery imports may remain strongly anchored by ongoing mining and infrastructure projects. This investment-led trade pattern is expected to support export growth, moderate inflation and stabilise foreign currency flows.
As gold and lithium continue to anchor exports, the link between capital imports and external earnings is becoming clearer, signalling a gradual but meaningful rebalancing of Zimbabwe’s trade model.-herald
