FOOD insecurity is expected to remain at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels in crop-deficit areas until September 2026, while food access in many parts of Zimbabwe is expected to improve following the main crop harvest, a new report shows.
Zimbabwe’s overall cereal production — including maize and traditional grains — is officially projected to reach approximately 2,74 million tonnes after the 2025-26 season.
The expected yield of approximately 2,35 million tonnes, representing a slight 2% increase from the previous season, has placed some areas in Zimbabwe in a strong position to ensure food security and avoid the severe import dependence seen during the 2024 drought.
However, according to the latest key update by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net), households in food-deficit areas are benefiting from access to their own harvests as the April to June harvesting season progresses.
Fews Net is a leading global provider of timely, accurate, evidence-based and transparent early warning information and analysis of current and future acute food insecurity.
It informs decisions on humanitarian planning and responses in the world’s most food-insecure countries.
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“Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through September 2026 in deficit-producing areas as the April to June main crop harvest progresses,” it said.
“Households in these areas are accessing food through their own-produced crop harvest, despite localised impacts on production from excessive rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the November 2025 to March 2026 rainy season.”
Fews Net also warned that limited income opportunities continue to constrain vulnerable households.
“Households still have limited cash incomes — in part due to below-average access to casual labour, livestock sales, wild produce such as Mopane worms, remittances and other sources — preventing them from meeting essential non-food needs,” the organisation said.
The update highlighted that the situation is more favourable in surplus-producing regions in the country.
“Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing and expected through September in typical surplus-producing areas in the Mashonaland provinces and other parts of the country.
“Households can meet their food and non-food needs, despite localised impacts on production from excessive rainfall and dry spells.
Households will have access to own-produced stocks and sufficient income from food and cash crop sales, casual labour, self-employment and other typical sources,” the update read.
Fews Net said increased cereal supplies at household and market levels triggered seasonal declines in maize grain prices in surplus-producing areas.
Despite these declines, grain prices remain significantly higher in deficit-producing areas, particularly in parts of southern and eastern Zimbabwe where crop production was poor.
“Maize grain prices are between 0,23 and 0,29 US$/kilogramme (kg) (or 4 and 5 US$/17,5 kg bucket), about 40-50% lower than prices during the January to March 2026 peak lean season.
“However, household and open market staple cereal stocks are limited in some deficit-producing southern and eastern areas where crop production was low.
“The movement of staple cereal from surplus- to deficit-producing areas is still low across most areas, as most farmers with surpluses have not yet finished harvesting and are not yet ready to sell their grain. As a result, staple cereal prices in deficit-producing areas remain elevated, around 0,46 US$/kg (8 US$/bucket). The demand for maize meal in these areas also remains unseasonally high,” the update read.
It also noted that the favourable rainfall received during the 2025-26 season boosted water availability and is supporting winter agricultural production and other livelihood activities.
Fews Net projected a favourable outlook for livestock conditions, prices and income to be above average, supported by fair to good pasture conditions and above-average hay, silage and stover stocks.
However, the prevalence of livestock diseases in some areas will affect livestock conditions, reducing potential income from livestock sales.
Fews Net stressed that rising fuel and transport costs linked to conflict in the Middle East continued to negatively impact poor households’ livelihoods, disposable income and access to markets.
While inflation remains relatively subdued, Fews Net cautioned that commodity prices could increase in the coming months.
“Despite relative stability in the prices of some basic food and non-food commodities, increases in production and freight costs and some commodity supply disruptions will likely push price increases for some commodities in the near term,” Fews Net said. -newsdsy
