Zimbabwe’s economy has shown resilience despite mounting global uncertainty, with tourism recovery, policy discipline and improving macroeconomic stability helping cushion the country against rising external shocks, according to the stockbroking firm FBC Securities.
Zimbabwe’s economic growth for 2026 is projected to range between 5 percent and 8,5 percent, driven by agriculture, mining (particularly gold) and structural reforms under an International Monetary Fund staff-monitored programme.
In its latest economic snapshot, FBC Securities said Zimbabwe entered the second quarter of the year on a stronger economic footing than at any stage in recent decades, supported by single-digit inflation, improved fiscal discipline, stronger foreign currency inflows and relative exchange rate stability.
The research said the economy’s improved fundamentals were becoming increasingly important as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue disrupting global energy markets and international supply chains.
“Zimbabwe now has its strongest macroeconomic foundations in a generation, yet those foundations are being tested by one of the most fragile global environments since the pandemic era,” the report said.
FBC Securities said one of the sectors demonstrating resilience is tourism, which recorded strong first-quarter growth before international geopolitical tensions began affecting global travel demand in March.
According to the report, international tourist arrivals increased 11 percent year-on-year to approximately 384 561 during the first quarter, while tourism receipts rose 14 percent to around US$251 million.
Domestic tourism also strengthened significantly, with local trips rising from roughly 1,94 million to 2,62 million.
The securities research firm said official figures reflected continued confidence in Zimbabwe as a premier tourism destination, while the growth in domestic tourism was helping create a more balanced and resilient industry.
“Domestic demand resilience is strategically important because it partially offsets volatility in international arrivals,” the report noted.
Hotel occupancy levels also improved modestly nationwide, with Manicaland posting one of the strongest performances at about 42 percent occupancy. The report said the recovery was broadening geographically even as business travel in some urban centres remained subdued.
While overseas travel demand softened because of higher airfares and route disruptions linked to global tensions, the report said authorities were already promoting regional and domestic tourism initiatives aimed at reducing exposure to long-haul travel volatility.
“Authorities are also promoting overland and rail-based tourism packages as part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on volatile international aviation routes,” FBC Research said.
The report also highlighted fuel and energy costs as one of the major economic challenges emerging during the first quarter of 2026.
Following three fuel price increases between March and early April, petrol prices climbed to around US$2,23 per litre while diesel reached approximately US$2.11 per litre before the Government’s relief interventions moderated prices slightly.
Authorities subsequently introduced temporary relief measures, including selected diesel tax adjustments and increased ethanol blending ratios from E5 to E20, moves designed to cushion consumers and productive sectors from global energy price shocks.
FBC Securities said that although fuel prices remained elevated, Zimbabwe’s current macroeconomic framework was significantly more stable than during previous inflationary periods.
“These interventions provided partial short-term relief. However, fuel prices remain significantly elevated relative to earlier in the year and continue exerting inflationary pressure across agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, consumer transport and household energy,” the report said.
Despite these pressures, the report findings maintained a constructive outlook for the economy, pointing to several stabilising factors that continue to support confidence.
Inflation remains in single digits, FBC Securities said, while the ZiG exchange rate has stabilised, fiscal discipline has improved and foreign reserves have strengthened materially.
It also described the recently approved International Monetary Fund Staff-Monitored Programme as a major boost to policy credibility and international re-engagement efforts.
FBC Securities projected economic growth to remain comparatively strong by regional standards in 2026, even as external pressures persist.
“Provided the Middle East conflict does not intensify materially, single-digit inflation remains achievable,” FBC Research pointed.
The report added that the key challenge for the remainder of the year would be maintaining domestic policy discipline while navigating a difficult global environment increasingly shaped by energy market volatility and geopolitical fragmentation.-herald
