ZIMBABWE’S tobacco average selling price has plunged 25% to US$2,54 per kilogramme, placing pressure on farmer returns at a time when the crop is contributing 15% of the agricultural sector’s gross domestic product (GDP), government data shows.
This comes despite strong tobacco deliveries this season, with the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board (TIMB) having reported that over 266 million kilogrammes of the crop valued at US$673,07 million had been sold by May 21.
The latest government data highlights tobacco’s growing importance to the economy, with the crop now accounting for about 10% to 15% of Zimbabwe’s agricultural GDP, making the country one of the world’s most tobacco-dependent economies.
However, the higher volumes have done little to offset the impact of declining prices, suggesting that farmers may be selling more crop this season while earning less for each kilogramme delivered to the market.
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Back in March, TIMB noted that Zimbabwe’s tobacco sector is supporting 135 284 households, a 37% increase over the past several years, indicating that the fall of prices will hit well over a hundred thousand dependants.
“As at day 52, a total of 255,92 million kilogrammes of tobacco had been sold at an average price of US$2,54 per kilogramme,” the 2026 16th post-Cabinet briefing statement read.
“This represents a 24% increase in volume and a 25% decline in average price compared to the same period in 2025 when 207,17 million kg were sold at an average price of US$3,38/kg.”
In the previous season, 355 million kilogrammes of the golden leaf were sold, generating US$1,2 billion in revenue.
If the current average selling price holds and the country achieves the projected record-breaking tobacco volumes of 400 million kilogrammes this season, Zimbabwe could set a new production record for the crop, but earn only about US$1,02 billion.
“Tobacco now accounts for approximately 10%-15% of Zimbabwe’s agricultural GDP, making it one of the most highly concentrated tobacco-dependent economies globally,” the Cabinet statement read.
It noted that, by comparison, this percentage is significantly larger than in other top global producers like Brazil.
“Between 2025 and 2026, the total volume of tobacco exports increased by 62,3% with the value also increasing by 67,5%,” the Cabinet statement read.
“China remains the primary destination for Zimbabwe’s tobacco, accounting for roughly 60% of the total export volume.”
The fall in prices has now surpassed initial projections from the food security outfit, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net), which put tobacco prices around 20% below last season.
“The 2026 tobacco marketing season opened in early March and is ongoing. However, the average tobacco price is around 20% below last year due to global market oversupply and weak demand,” Fews Net said.
“This is negatively impacting some farmers’ income and access to food and non-food needs, especially as many farmers need to repay loans.
“A record 400 million kilogramme (kg) tobacco harvest is anticipated this year. Average tobacco prices on the auction and contract floors are expected to remain lower than last year and below average due to global market oversupply, weak demand and increasing shipping costs.”
The Cabinet statement was presented after the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe recently warned of an 88% to 94% chance that an El Niño weather phenomenon will emerge during the upcoming 2026-27 agricultural season.-newsday
