THE Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has approved a reduced water allocation of 23 billion cubic metres for electricity generation at Kariba Dam for 2027, down from the 36 billion cubic metres (BCM) allocated for this year, as Zimbabwe and Zambia brace for a potentially poor rainfall season driven by strengthening El Niño conditions.
This allocation will be shared equally between ZESCO Limited and the Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC), with each utility receiving 11.5 BCM.
ZRA acting chief executive, Mr Peter Kapinga, revealed this yesterday saying the decision was based on forecasts of strong El Nino conditions and below-normal rainfall expected during the 2026/2027 rainfall season, as assessed during the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33).
“The Authority has approved a combined water allocation of 23 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) for power generation at the Kariba Power Stations,” Mr Kapinga said.
“The allocation is based on forecasts of strong El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall prevailing during the 2026/2027 rainfall season… and the Authority’s internal inflow projections.”
While the 2027 allocation reflects a conservative approach due to anticipated dry conditions, Mr Kapinga said the revised 2026 combined water allocation for power generation remains unchanged at 36 BCM. This follows an earlier increase from 30BCM, which was supported by substantial inflows received during the previous 2025/2026 rainfall season that significantly improved water availability in Lake Kariba. The 36
BCM is also shared equally, with 18 BCM assigned to each utility.
“As of October 14, 2026, ZESCO Limited’s Kariba North Bank Power Station had a balance of 3.53 BCM (19.66 percent) on its allocation, while ZPC’s Kariba South Bank Power Station had a balance of 6.13 BCM (34.09 percent),” he said
The Kariba South Power Station, operated by ZPC, remains a cornerstone of the national grid whose management has been pivotal, particularly as Zimbabwe has successfully navigated the entirety of 2026 without experiencing load shedding, a monumental achievement for the nation’s economic and social stability.
This feat underscores the critical nature of the ZRA’s allocations and the need for continued diligent water management between the two contracting states.
According to the latest Daily Power Generation Statistics released by ZPC yesterday, the national power supply remains robust. Maximum supply stood at 1 577MW. Hwange Thermal Power Station continues to carry the bulk of the load, contributing 1 108MW, Kariba at 415MW, while Independent Power Producers (IPPs) supplied 54MW.
The diversified generation mix highlights the ongoing reliance on both thermal and hydroelectric sources to meet national demand, though the drop in Kariba’s contribution from its peak potential highlights the seasonal variability of hydropower.
Currently, Lake Kariba stands at 480.65 metres above sea level, holding 23.77 BCM of usable water, representing 36.68 percent of usable storage capacity.
The ZRA projects that the lake will close the year with 16.24 BCM of usable water (25.10 percent live storage), providing a critical buffer for the start of 2027.
Looking ahead, the SARCOF-33 outlook indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern SADC region, with southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe expected to receive below-normal rainfall from January to March 2027.
In light of this, Mr Kapinga reaffirmed the Authority’s commitment to daily monitoring and coordination with the utilities through joint technical committee meetings.
As Zimbabwe and Zambia navigate the challenges of climate variability, the ZRA’s proactive planning and transparent communication remain essential for regional energy security, ensuring that the shared waters continue to power the socio-economic development of both nations.-herald
