RBZ targets US$3 bln gold earnings in 2025
HARARE – The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) expects to earn US$3.2 billion in gold exports this year, assuming gold production remains around 38 tonnes and gold prices stay stable.
Gold experienced a remarkable price surge in 2024, climbing from US$2,000 to nearly US$2,800 per ounce, with an average price of US$65,000 per kilogram. This upward trend is anticipated to continue, with prices expected to surpass US$85,000 per kilogram this year which was achieved in the last quarter of 2024, driven by factors such as heightened geopolitical tensions, fears of economic slowdown, and increased safe-haven demand.
Moreover, central banks are likely to continue easing monetary policy and diversifying their reserves with gold purchases, further supporting prices. While a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields may pose some headwinds, the potential for inflationary pressures to limit interest rate cuts could propel gold prices further towards US$2,900-3,000 per ounce.
RBZ Governor Dr John Mushayavanhu told FinX that, “projections for 2025 are a function of both gold production and prices. For the year 2025, gold production is projected to be around 38 tonnes.”
He added that based on the average prices for the year 2024, and assuming that the trend persists where gold prices remain in the region of US$85,000 per kg, expected gold receipts for 2025 will be between US$2.8 billion and US$3.2 billion. This will be a major rise from 2024 where prices largely averaged US$65,000 before rising significantly to about US$85,000 per kg in the last quarter of the year.
Gold price trend 2024
Goldman Sachs expects prices to reach US$3,000 by the end of 2025, citing central bank demand and expected rate cuts by the Fed.
The most bearish forecasts are from Barclays and Macquarie, which both expect gold to sink to about US$2,500 per troy ounce by the end of the year—a roughly 4% drop from current levels.
Gold export earnings in 2024 totalled US$1,447,339,179.80, up 18.35% from US$1,228,196,536.75 recorded in 2023. July had the highest earnings of US$158,173,331, while December had the lowest at US$44,522,327.06, a 45.65% decrease from the same period in 2023, when earnings were US$81,913,085, despite gold prices exceeding US$2,500 per ounce. (The December total is, however, still subject to revision.)
Gold deliveries in 2024 exceeded the revised delivery target of 35,000 kg, totalling 36,486.75 kg, a 21.15% increase over the 2023 total of 30,106.71 kg, with small-scale miners contributing the most.
