National herd under threat from severe drought

ZIMBABWE’S national herd is under threat as it is now evident that the country will be ravaged by a severe drought this year with livestock farmers being encouraged to start destocking to hedge against the imminent losses.

Last year, the World Meteorological Organisation warned of El Niño conditions that could severely impact farm output in Zimbabwe and the southern Africa region in the 2023/2024 summer cropping season.

Against this background, the 2023/2024 rainy season has seen the country receiving below normal rainfall as had been predicted that the country and other regional countries would receive normal to below-normal rainfall.

So far, as a result of the El Niño weather phenomenon that is characterised by high temperatures and prolonged dry spells, we have seen farmers who are into crop production particularly maize across the country counting losses with little or nothing to harvest.

Due to the anticipated drought — one of the worst in many years is threatening the country’s national herd that presently stands at 5,5 million and was expected to reach six million by next year on the back of the Government’s Agricultural Growth Recovery Plan.

The Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union (ZCFU) president Dr Shadreck Makombe said in light of the imminent drought, chances of stock feed going up is high.

“We do implore the powers that be, especially the business persons (stock feed producers), to understand our environment. They may want to hike their prices, but they should be considerate of the environment where ordinarily, they would put exorbitant prices.

“We are saying let there be nominal pricing in terms of their stock feed. We are still to continue to advise farmers that it is time for them to start making their own stock feed or harvesting for stock feed because it is very clear that it is a bad season.

“Therefore, farmers must be found ready, that is, they must be prepared and at the same time, we are saying they should start reducing their herd, so that the money which they would have realised from selling their herd, they put it to stock feed,” he said.

“It does not help for one to continue clinging to your herd of cattle, and then at the end of the day, all the herd is going to perish due to lack of feed. It does not make sense.

“We are saying farmers should have the business mindset to know that farming is a business, to mitigate loss factors. If people don’t dispose of it now, they will be forced to dispose of it for a pittance.”

Presently, Makombe said, stock feed prices are relatively reasonable but going forward into the drought season, the prices would steepen because demand will be high against a scarce commodity.

He said even the price of the beasts on the market will decline as everyone would be wanting to sell their animals.

“And naturally, where there are a lot of goods, like in this case, many animals on the market, the demand there will be overwhelmed by supply.

“What does it mean? — it means the prices are going to go down.

“By selling now, you are hedging so that when the situation becomes bad, you are in a better situation as much as you are already in a dire situation. So, the best thing is to sell now where also people have got the disposable income to buy because by then you may find that people will be buying food mainly for survival,” said the ZCFU president.

As a result of the envisaged drought, Makombe said stock feed prices will rise and the net effect will be farmers would be discouraged to produce and thus adversely affecting efforts to boost the national herd.

“Naturally when beef now is in abundance by nature, it means the prices of white meat might also go down. But of course, it may not, we can see the dynamics for health reasons most people are going for the white meat and so forth. But naturally, we are going to have a situation that if people don’t dispose of their animals now they will be forced to dispose of for a pittance — that’s a fact and, some like cattle start dying and it means people now they will dispose and there will be no talk of quality.

“And many people now may go for the cheap products. By nature, it means beef is cheaper as compared to poultry and other products, so people will flood to buy beef,” he said.

On account of the prevailing situation, Makombe said already there are overtures that the Government will soon be declaring that there is drought this year implying that there will be an emergency situation where ordinarily, policies which would be done under a normal environment would be avoided.

“At the same time, a subsidy may be helpful or find ways that at least farmers will continue to survive that is the prices of stock feed or in terms of tax to mitigate like as it is, the 30 percent tax that is there when one sells the produce in terms of, if you dispose of your cattle, you are to pay 30 percent.

“If they can be obviated for now because of drought, all sectors which may make it difficult for farmers to buy stock feed, if they can be obviated, or lessened,” he said, adding that at the same time the price of chemicals should be lowered, but manufacturers need to continue producing and that’s why it is imperative for the Government to come in with a subsidy or some formula for farmers not to be hit hard.

Speaking by telephone from Bulawayo, Livestock Union chairman Sifiso Sibanda, said it is now unanimous that Zimbabwe will be withered by drought this year and farmers would be forced to destock to circumvent losses associated with the drought.

“This year is threatening to be one of the worst ever in memory, judging by the heat that is there and also judging by the scarcity of feed — that is quite scary.

“We also know water will be a challenge in many areas and the farmers are being advised to invest in water harvesting, that is the harvesting of underground water and those that are near dams the better that water is conserved.

“Talking of piped water schemes its neither here nor there, but people must be prepared to harvest the underground water for the watering of animals because when the feed is dry, animals need more water and that is going to be very critical at the same time,” he said.

Sibanda said it is quite disturbing that the prices of animals on the market have fallen as farmers are de-stocking preparing to buy feed for the remaining beasts.

“It is quite annoying actually because the prices have gone very low, but it is understandable that the glut on the market is causing the prices to go low because everyone is selling to try and prepare for this very bad season.

“The farmers want the full value of an animal, even during drought because animals are life to us. We raise these animals, they are our bank and also an investment.

“As farmers, we are businesspeople and we are looking at a heifer that costs for not less than US$800 and we are looking for a fully well-groomed animal for slaughter that sells for not less than US$1 000, but these guys (buyers) have another signal that they are using, which is not our signal as farmers and we are concerned,” he said.

Sibanda said when the farmers get good prices from the market, there are able to treat their animals and also do supplementary feeding and sustain the livestock industry.

“We cannot afford a situation whereby the meat processors make a profit of 200 percent. If they make a profit of 200 percent, it means we are 180 percent poorer, because we expect them to make between 15 percent and 20 percent profit, so that we also remain in a sustainable position.

“But at the moment, I think the meat processors have not been sincere to us. They have taken advantage of our desperate situation at times and this drought is not going to help us anyway.

“So, we still have got a long way to go to find each other as business partners,” he added.

A prominent Matabeleland-based livestock farmer Winston Barbage, who is also ZCFU Matabeleland North provincial chairman, said their situation would be worsened by the imminent drought taking into account that Zimbabwe’s livestock industry was recently battling January Disease which saw thousands of cattle across the country dying.

“The livestock sector is in turmoil at the moment, recently we saw January Disease and its being complemented by this drought now. The situation is that like in some areas like Masvingo province some farmers have declared their crops in the just-ended cropping season a write off.

“They are not going to be harvesting anything that can be used to make stock feed so the situation we are in is very worrisome,” he said.-ebusinessweekly