Zim raises GDP forecasts by 2.2 percentage points

Much of the economic growth is anticipated to come from a 58 percent increase in maize harvests while traditional grain production is also expected to increase by 45 percent.

The country’s economy is now expected to grow by 6 percent from the previous projection of 3,8 percent on the back of a good agriculture performance, a Cabinet Minister has said.

In her post-Cabinet briefing on Wednesday, Information, Publicity, and Broadcasting Services Minister Monica Mutsvangwa, said the new projections are on account of the positive performance of the agricultural sector.

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now expected to increase from the current projection of 4 percent to 6 percent on account of the positive performance of the agricultural sector,” said Mutsvangwa.

Much of the growth is anticipated to come from a 58 percent increase in maize harvests while traditional grain production is also expected to increase by 45 percent.

According to Mutsvangwa, the estimated maize production is 2 298 281 metric tonnes, a 58 percent increase on the 2021/2022 season.

“Traditional grains production is estimated at 280 966 tonnes, a 45 percent increase on the 2021/2022 figure.

“Sorghum production is expected to be 191 125 tonnes, which is 32 percent more than production in the 2021/2022 season; pearl millet production is expected to be 171 221 tonnes, which is 61 percent more than what was produced in 2021/2022 season; and finger millet production is expected to be 18 610 tonnes, which is 250 percent more than what was produced in the 2021/2022 season,” she said.

The total cereal production is 2 579 247 tonnes, against a national cereal requirement of 1 837 742 tonne for human consumption and 450 000 tonnes for livestock, leaving a surplus, according to Government.

The upward review on growth projections comes as a survey conducted by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) showed that the business community is confident on the economic prospects for the first six months of 2023.

According to ZimStat’s Business Tendency Survey Services Sector for the fourth quarter 2022, proportions of respondents expecting the business situation to improve during the first six months of 2023 were above fifty percent for all sectors except in the Wholesale and Retail trade.

The government’s optimism is contrary to recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, which is more pessimistic about Zimbabwe’s economy.

As reported by Business Weekly last week, citing the latest World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund, Zimbabwe will record the lowest economic growth rate among southern African countries in 2023.

At a 2,5 percent GDP growth rate in 2023, the country’s growth rate is below neighbouring countries with Zambia expected to register a 4 percent GDP growth.

Mozambique at 5 percent and Botswana 3,7 percent are expecting better economic fortunes than Zimbabwe.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s region as a whole is expected to register an economic growth rate of 3,6 percent in the period under review.

Zimbabwe is only above South Africa at 0.1 percent and Malawi at 2,4 percent.-ebusinessweekly