3 500MW by end of next year, is it achievable?

ANALYSTS say it is increasingly becoming impossible that the targeted 3 500 Megawatts (MW) Zimbabwe requires under the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1 will not be attained by the end of next year).

NDS1, is the Government five-year economic blueprint to anchor the country between now and 2025 after which the policy will be superseded by NDS2 running between 2026 and 2030 where Zimbabwe seeks to achieve an upper middle-income society.

Under NDS 1, one of the critical 14 pillars is power supply where the Government projected the country would be generating 3 500MW by next year.

At the implementation of the NDS1, Zimbabwe was generating below 1 500MW forcing the country to rely on imports to cover the deficit.

However, power generation in the country is still critical at an average of less than 1 500MW and at times below 1 200MW against a daily peak demand of about 2 200MW particularly in winter.

Currently, Zimbabwe is experiencing critical power generation constraints, largely attributed to the El Nino-induced drought in the 2023/24 rainy season with water levels becoming extremely low and thus negatively impacting output at Kariba which has an installed capacity of 1 050MW.

Zimbabwe and Zambia receive an equal amount of water from Kariba Dam for electricity generation allocated by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), which is responsible for water management in the dam.

The dam was designed to operate at between levels of 475,50 metres and 488,50m for hydropower generation for the two neighbouring countries.

ZRA has indicated that usable water needed for electricity generation, as of November 11, 2024 was at 476,03m compared to 477,88m in the corresponding period in 2023.

Consequently, this has forced Zimbabwe to rely mainly on Hwange Thermal Power Station whose installed capacity was raised to 1 520MW following the addition of Units 7 and 8 with the two units adding a combined 600MW.

However, Hwange has been experiencing technical faults worsening the power supply situation.

Economist, Dr Davison Gomo said: “I just want to say that plans are plans and they remain a plan — the Government planned very sincerely and they put that target because they believed that it was critical that we reach that target in 2025.

“What I want to emphasise is that they did that with a very sincere plea with all things remaining equal, that plan was attainable.

“But you know very well the flow of funds into the fiscus is subject to a lot of external influences and the disruptions that come from uncontrollable structures.

“It’s increasingly looking that it might be impossible to achieve the target.”

Over the years, Zimbabwe and the southern African region have experienced power deficits largely due to lack of investments in power generation projects, climate change — rising temperatures and changing weather patterns have adversely affected hydroelectric power generation and thus worsening the supply shortage.

Moreso, regional demand growth due to the expansion of economies in SADC, has led to rising electricity demand, further straining the existing power infrastructure.

Initiatives to improve electricity supply constraints in the region include the initiative by the Southern African Power Pool to foster electricity trade, enabling member countries to share excess energy while reducing dependence on costly imports.

Countries in the region are also investing in renewable energy sources like wind and solar to diversify their energy mix and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) past president, Trust Chikohora, said if power supply constraints remain unchanged going forward, the aspired upper middle-income economy status by 2030 would remain a dream.

“The situation is seemingly getting worse now — we are worse off than we were last year in terms of power supply.

“Someone is not doing something right, they are messing it up somewhere and it is not working; they need to get back to the drawing board and see how they can move this forward.

“It’s self—evident that what they are doing right now does not work in terms of power.

“ This ZESA monopoly thing will get us nowhere, we need to re-think it and allow private players to provide electricity without involving ZESA.”

Since 2010, the Government through the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA) has licensed over 100 Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to invest in electricity generation projects.

While some of the investments have taken shape, a majority of them are yet to be implemented or have failed to take off due to a number of reasons.

“The problem that IPPs have encountered over the years in the energy space is the monopoly that ZESA still enjoys.

“If you are an IPP the challenge is that you have to agree with ZESA the amount of how much will be paid to supply power, so right now even if some wants to do a 6 000MW, the problem that they have is the only customer that they have is ZESA and an IPP cannot supply people directly.

“So, because of the monopoly ZESA detects what the price of power would be and if that is the case, investors get the peanuts that ZESA would be paying,” he said.

“For NDS 1 and Vision 2030 targets, you cannot achieve those projections without power and given the current generation capacity, we are unlikely to achieve those targets because power is indispensable in terms of industry and commerce and even our day-to-day lives.”-ebsinesssweekl